Iranian strikes force US rethink of Middle East military presence

Europe's View

Iranian missile and drone strikes have caused extensive damage to American military facilities across the Middle East, prompting the Pentagon to reconsider the location and design of its regional bases.

Satellite images examined by The Wall Street Journal revealed previously undisclosed damage at Naval Support Activity Bahrain, the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet and the principal centre of American naval operations in the region. The findings contrast with triumphalist claims made during the conflict by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Although American forces inflicted substantial damage on Iran, Tehran demonstrated that major US installations in the Gulf remain vulnerable to sustained missile and drone attacks.

Iranian strikes damage US base in Bahrain

Between late February and June, Iran repeatedly targeted the naval headquarters in Bahrain. The strikes damaged the command building, at least a dozen other structures and two satellite communications terminals. The United States evacuated most personnel from the facility, although a reduced staff remained on site.

No American personnel were killed at the Bahrain base, and the military said the attacks did not significantly disrupt operations. Nevertheless, the physical damage was considerably greater than the Pentagon had publicly acknowledged.

Captain Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for US Central Command, said protecting personnel had taken priority over defending buildings.

“Since the beginning of the war, Central Command has prioritised the protection of personnel rather than facilities, and that strategy proved effective. Iran launched more than 8,000 missiles and drones, but only two strikes resulted in US fatalities,” he claimed.

Hawkins also stressed that American forces had struck more than 13,500 targets and caused considerably more damage to Iran than they had sustained. The scale and accuracy of the Iranian attacks have nonetheless challenged assumptions about the security of large, permanent US bases in the Gulf.

Pentagon considers relocating and fortifying bases

American military planners are now considering whether some damaged facilities should be rebuilt at all. Options reportedly include placing command centres underground, dispersing operations across several smaller sites and relocating some functions farther west, beyond the effective range of many Iranian missiles and drones.

Israel has been mentioned as one possible destination for certain military functions. The Pentagon is also reviewing the size of the American presence in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

No final decision has been announced, and the United States is not preparing to abandon the Middle East entirely. The discussions nevertheless amount to a significant reassessment of a regional military network developed over several decades.

Former US Assistant Secretary of the Air Force Ravi Chaudhary acknowledged that the weapons which penetrated American defences had damaged infrastructure essential to military operations.

“We defended our facilities effectively. However, the munitions that succeeded in penetrating the defences damaged infrastructure required for operations,” he said. “This was the result of Iran’s work over many years to develop its strike capabilities.”

Retired Vice-Admiral John Miller, a former commander of US naval forces in the Middle East, said the base had evolved gradually during more than half a century of American presence.

“We have been there for more than 50 years, and the base developed in the way it developed. I think that today we would do many things differently,” he said.

War costs reach tens of billions of dollars

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that the conflict cost the United States between $34 billion and $42 billion. Its assessment includes munitions, deployments, increased operational activity, damaged equipment and attacks on military bases.

An initial examination of 122 damaged structures placed the cost of base damage at between $2.2 billion and $5.1 billion. A broader estimate covering additional buildings raised the likely cost of repairing fixed military infrastructure to between $4 billion and $9.4 billion.

The cost could rise further because satellite imagery cannot reveal all internal damage or the value of equipment destroyed inside warehouses, command buildings and communications facilities.

Rebuilding the Bahrain base alone could cost hundreds of millions of dollars. The two satellite communications terminals destroyed there were reportedly valued at around $20 million each.

CSIS noted that Iranian strikes appeared highly accurate. Many of the facilities hit were rendered unusable, while satellite images showed few random impact craters that would indicate large numbers of missed targets.

Despite this damage, there is little evidence that the attacks prevented the United States from continuing its military campaign. The more significant effect may instead be long-term: Washington must now reconsider whether its existing network of large and exposed bases remains sustainable.

Gulf allies place limits on Washington

The conflict has also exposed tensions between the United States and some of its regional partners. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait initially restricted American use of their bases and airspace during parts of the campaign, reflecting concerns that deeper involvement could provoke further Iranian retaliation. Those restrictions were subsequently lifted, but the dispute demonstrated the limits of Washington’s influence even among long-standing security partners.

During a recent regional trip, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain, where he reiterated Washington’s commitment to protecting its partners. Saudi Arabia was not included in the itinerary.

Regional governments increasingly face a difficult calculation. Hosting American forces provides security guarantees but also makes their territory a potential target whenever the United States enters a direct conflict with Iran.

Strikes trigger strategic recalculation

The damage does not support the claim that the United States has already fled the Middle East. American forces remain deployed across the region, and Washington continues to possess vastly greater military resources than Tehran. However, the attacks have ended any assumption that US bases in the Gulf can operate without facing a serious threat from Iranian precision weapons.

Washington must now decide which facilities to rebuild, which functions to relocate and how much of its regional presence should remain concentrated in vulnerable locations.

The choices made after the Iranian strikes could shape the US Middle East military presence for decades. They also show that declarations of victory cannot conceal the strategic cost of a war that exposed significant weaknesses in America’s regional infrastructure.

The Voice of Moldova