IMF and EBRD cut through the government’s optimism
Despite Eugen Osmokescu’s claims that Moldovans are living better, international financial institutions clearly see a different picture. The IMF has again refused to give Moldova a new loan, while the EBRD has lowered its economic growth forecast for the country.
Moldova’s economy is under serious pressure. Growth forecasts are being revised down. Inflation is rising again. The current account deficit has reached an alarming 22% of GDP. Yet if one listens to the economy minister, it sounds as if the country is already almost in the European Union and life has never been better.
The hard numbers from the IMF and EBRD
In May, Moldova’s own Economy Ministry cut its growth estimate to 2%, even though the budget had been built around a forecast of 2.4%. Now international experts are saying the same thing. They have far fewer illusions about Moldova’s prospects than the government does.
In its latest review, published on June 2–3, 2026, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development lowered its forecast for Moldova’s economic growth to 2.8%. Yes, that is only 0.2 percentage points below the February forecast. But the direction matters. The economy is not accelerating, as PAS keeps suggesting. It is slowing.
Inflation is also climbing again. In December 2025, it stood at 4.9%. By March 2026, it had reached 5.8%. Analysts point to a new energy shock, driven by the war in the Middle East and inflationary pressure.
“The conflict in the Middle East caused another energy shock for Moldova, which may lead to renewed inflation and weaker economic growth,” they wrote.
The EBRD also warns that Moldova is one of the most vulnerable countries in the region because of its heavy dependence on Romania for energy supplies. Yes, the Bank says EU support for energy security, still present in early 2026, will probably continue to play a stabilising role.
But what kind of stability are we talking about if the forecasts are negative and the IMF has twice refused to provide a loan? Stable decline?
An IMF programme without money
On May 20, the International Monetary Fund announced a new three-year agreement with Moldova. State-friendly media did not rush to celebrate it too loudly. The reason is simple: the agreement does not provide Moldova with a loan, even though Chișinău had been hoping for one.
The so-called Policy Coordination Instrument is not a credit programme. It does not provide loans, financing or new tranches. In some ways, it is worse. It is a framework that locks the Moldovan government into reforms under strict IMF supervision for 36 months. IMF mission chief Alina Iancu explained why Moldova needed such a “programme without financing” in the first place. The situation, in short, is bad.
“Real GDP grew by 2.4% last year. However, a new energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East is slowing economic growth and accelerating inflation. Economic growth is expected to slow this year to 1.5%. Average annual inflation in 2026 is expected to reach 8.1%, while the current account deficit will rise to 22.1% of GDP,” she said.
So, according to the IMF, growth will be almost twice as low as the government’s more comforting version. And inflation above 8% will quickly eat through any promised wage increases.
Budget cuts are coming
The IMF is also demanding strict budget consolidation. By 2029, Moldova must reduce its budget deficit to 3.5% of GDP. That means the government will not be able to avoid higher taxes, lower public spending or another round of tariff pressure. This is the reality behind the polite language.
PAS keeps saying everything is fine
Now compare this with the triumphant tone of Maia Sandu and her team. In February, when the economy was already sending warning signals, Sandu was asked when Moldovans would finally start living better, as promised.
Her answer was predictably optimistic. She said most categories of citizens now receive more money. She admitted inflation exists, but immediately blamed the war in Ukraine. A month later, in March, Sandu was in Bratislava speaking to Slovak business representatives. There she said Moldova was going through a “deep transformation”, was open for business, had defeated corruption and had eliminated dependence on gas.
It feels like two different realities. On one side, Moldova’s Western creditors are saying: get ready, inflation and weaker growth are coming. On the other side, state media keep showing citizens the construction site of a bright European future. Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu, commenting on the IMF agreement, said it was “a clear signal that international partners value the professionalism of the government team”.
He somehow forgot to use words like “austerity plan” or “debt discipline”.
What ordinary people will feel
International organisations and the government clearly see Moldova’s future differently. The IMF expects growth to slow to 1.5%, inflation to exceed 8%, and public spending to be cut. The government, meanwhile, continues to run a large deficit. According to the EBRD, it may reach 4.8% of GDP in 2026.
And it still believes in miracles. As usual, ordinary people will pay the bill. Higher tariffs are already visible in utility bills. Inflation is hitting household budgets. IMF demands to reduce the deficit will almost certainly lead to new taxes, fewer benefits or more “optimisation”.
PAS will continue to say Moldova is on the right path. The only question is where that path leads once international partners stop lighting it with loans and grants.
