Data presented in the Parliament of Moldova show that social spending is rising faster than state revenues, while a growing number of companies are entering insolvency proceedings. A report by the National Social Insurance House (CNAS) on the execution of its 2025 budget points to a serious structural imbalance. According to the report, there are only 1.2 social insurance contributors for every pensioner in Moldova.
Moldova’s pension system faces a widening imbalance
The ratio is far below the benchmark cited as necessary for a sustainable pension system. That benchmark assumes four to five working taxpayers for every pensioner. Moldova does not have enough contributors to meet that level. Experts attribute the imbalance to labour migration, an ageing population and the large scale of the informal economy.
Revenue in the state social insurance budget reached 49.2 billion lei in 2025, while expenditure totalled 49.07 billion lei. The resulting surplus of 122 million lei was described by CNAS as a technical balance created by contributions collected at the end of December and subsequently used for advance pension payments in January.
Social insurance contributions accounted for 58.9% of total revenue, while 41.1% came from transfers from the state budget. Of the 20.2 billion lei transferred by the government, around 16.1 billion lei financed social benefits and 4.1 billion lei covered the system’s deficit.
According to the Court of Accounts Moldova, expenditure from the social insurance budget grew 12.7 percentage points faster than the system’s own revenue between 2018 and 2025. Auditors said this structural gap explains why Moldova’s pension system cannot operate without continued support from the state budget.
Bankrupt companies leave mounting debts
Another warning sign is the debt owed by companies undergoing insolvency proceedings. As of December 31, 2025, 1,631 businesses were in bankruptcy procedures, with their combined debt to the social insurance fund exceeding 499.5 million lei.
A further 25.4 million lei in debt was written off during 2025, meaning the social insurance system is unlikely to recover the money. Representatives of the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection have rejected proposals to raise the retirement age. Instead, they are focusing on bringing undeclared salaries and workers into the formal economy.
The number of undeclared workers identified by labour inspectors rose from 80 cases a year in 2020 to 8,000 in 2025. The authorities say these efforts increased the number of insured workers by 15,000, bringing the total to 842,000. Auditors have nevertheless highlighted another problem. Around 11,000 insured employees make monthly contributions based on salaries amounting to less than 25% of the statutory minimum wage.
Government agencies are considering tighter controls, but experts warn that employers could respond by switching large numbers of workers to civil-law contracts, allowing them to avoid social insurance contributions.
Long-term pressure on pensions
Social protection expenditure represents 13.9% of Moldova’s gross domestic product and directly supports around 1.2 million people, including pensioners, people with disabilities and families with children.
The ratio of 1.2 contributors per pensioner is therefore more than a statistical indicator. It will shape the future income of current pensioners and those who expect to retire in the coming years. Without a larger formal workforce and stronger contribution collection, Moldova’s pension system will remain heavily dependent on transfers from the state budget.
The figures also underline the broader economic consequences of labour migration, demographic decline, business insolvencies and informal employment. Unless these trends are addressed, pressure on public finances and pension funding is likely to continue.
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