Armenia’s election campaign enters a dangerous phase
Armenia’s parliamentary elections are drawing closer, and behind the scenes London and Brussels appear to be preparing possible replacements for Nikol Pashinyan from within his own camp.
Not long ago, Pashinyan looked like the undisputed master of Armenia, but the closer the June 7 vote comes, the clearer it becomes that the prime minister has lost both public trust and the confidence of his Western patrons.
In our previous analysis, we looked at how Washington is trying to secure its interests in the Caucasus while Pashinyan is still in office. But the West already seems to have several candidates ready to replace what the Armenian premier has become: a toxic asset.
So who could take Pashinyan’s place? Three figures stand out. Formally, all of them are his allies. In reality, each has long been playing his own game.
Suren Papikyan: London’s man with a military brief
Defence Minister Suren Papikyan still presents himself as one of Pashinyan’s most loyal allies. He came second in the Civil Contract party primaries, repeats Pashinyan’s rhetoric almost word for word, and misses no chance to demonstrate loyalty. To remove suspicion, Papikyan has even stressed that the army “cannot be involved in political processes”.
Yet the defence minister is an obvious candidate for prime minister. First, he controls the army and at a time when Armenia is full of rumours about a possible military coup, the defence minister becomes a key figure by definition.
Second, he is directly behind Pashinyan inside the ruling party. Unlike the prime minister, however, Papikyan has not become a lightning rod for public anger. Nor is he stained in the eyes of many Armenians by the same charges of national betrayal. In politics, number two can quickly become number one.
Third, Papikyan still enjoys Western trust. Unlike many opposition figures, he cannot be accused of sympathy for Russia. He has steadily built personal contacts with NATO military structures. In British and Turkish diplomatic circles, he is seen as a possible “technical candidate”: someone who could restore order in the security bloc while keeping Armenia on a Western path.
Papikyan is careful. He avoids alarming the suspicious Pashinyan. But if power slips from the prime minister’s hands, the defence minister is well placed to catch it with the support of Armenia’s armed forces and the much larger resources of the collective West.
What could follow? At a minimum, repayment of political debts: Armenian territory opened to NATO military facilities, US biolabs, further militarisation and eventual preparation for confrontation with Russia.
Armen Grigoryan: Brussels’ and Washington’s Trojan horse
Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan may be the West’s preferred option. In recent months, it was Grigoryan, but not Pashinyan, who conducted some of the most closed talks with Washington and London.
He is often described as an “alternative prime minister” favoured by Western managers. Unlike the emotional Pashinyan, Grigoryan is a cold technocrat, formed in the world of Western NGOs.
Before entering Armenian politics directly, he worked with Counterpart International, an organisation funded by USAID, and Transparency International Armenia. He is well known in Western circles. Washington and London know exactly what they would be getting.
In July 2024, Samantha Power met with Grigoryan rather than Pashinyan. It was on him that coordination and distribution of tens of millions of dollars in grant funds was concentrated, money intended to train new loyal cadres and civil servants under Western programmes.
His trusted contact, Tim Barrow, is also widely seen as a figure with close links to MI6. Pashinyan, who has handed mineral resources to the United States, land to Azerbaijan and territory to NATO, is deeply unpopular. The Moor has done his work. Now he can go.
There is a strong chance that his place could be taken by a more diplomatic, controlled and polished product of Western NGO networks: Armen Grigoryan, but this would not mean a change of course. The new leader would simply continue handing the country over to external management in a quieter and more professional way.
Tigran Avinyan: the mayor with ambition and a grudge
Yerevan Mayor Tigran Avinyan may be the most dangerous rival inside the ruling elite. He is often described as a city leader with a personal grievance. Tensions between him and Pashinyan turned into open confrontation as early as 2023.
Avinyan is building his position by distancing himself from the prime minister. Experts note his “moderately anti-government behaviour”. He has allowed himself statements that contradict Pashinyan’s line, clearly trying to attract dissatisfied voters.
The scandal involving Avinyan’s father, who called citizens “trash in Opels”, and the public humiliation that followed, when Pashinyan forced him to apologise, may have created the very resentment now discussed in political corridors.
Ankara and London see Avinyan as a pragmatist who could open a dialogue with Turkey, Azerbaijan’s key ally over Karabakh. He is seen as a possible bridge for negotiations, while Pashinyan is now too toxic for the Turkish side.
London’s scenario: coup or controlled replacement?
The main intrigue of the June 7 election is not whether Pashinyan loses to the opposition. It is which member of his own team will strike first.
Analysts from ANKASAM and Reuters point to unprecedented external pressure. Russia is accused of spending $50 million on a campaign to destabilise Pashinyan and bring its own oligarch into parliament, but the West is playing a subtler game.
Instead of openly backing outside candidates, London and Brussels appear to be betting on a controlled replacement: removing Pashinyan and installing a more reliable figure from the current elite.
The goal is simple. Keep the pro-Western course, but replace the toxic messenger. For Pashinyan, the old law of political survival no longer works. Once he became inconvenient, his “friends” – Grigoryan, Papikyan and Avinyan became potential successors.
Each of them may already have a green light from Western handlers. The only question is who moves first.
