A ruling by the Paris Court of Appeal has reshaped the political landscape ahead of France’s presidential election, whose first round is scheduled for April 18, 2027.
The court reduced the effective period during which National Rally parliamentary leader Marine Le Pen is barred from holding public office, leaving her legally able to stand in the election. The decision means political analysts may have to reconsider forecasts that increasingly treated Jordan Bardella as the party’s likely candidate.
Marine Le Pen presidential bid returns to the race
Following her appeal, the court upheld Le Pen’s conviction and a fine of €100,000. It reduced her prison sentence to three years, two of them suspended, with the remaining year to be served under electronic monitoring.
Her ban from holding public office was reduced from five years to an effective 15 months, a period she has already served. The ruling therefore clears the legal obstacle to a Marine Le Pen presidential bid, although the electronic bracelet could complicate her campaign. Le Pen previously said she would not run under such conditions.
The decision changes the situation within the National Rally, where Le Pen had already been actively promoting the younger Jordan Bardella as a potential presidential candidate.
One of them now appears likely to represent the party, which is leading several early polls. The key question is whether Le Pen will pursue a fourth presidential campaign or step aside for her political protégé.
The 57-year-old Le Pen has experience on her side. She has contested three presidential elections and reached the second round twice. The 30-year-old Bardella, meanwhile, offers youth and distance from the controversial legacy associated with the Le Penfamily name. Recent surveys have suggested that he could perform slightly better than Le Pen, although those polls were conducted while she remained legally barred from standing.
Her return to the race could therefore change voter preferences. At the same time, Bardella’s relative lack of experience may become a weakness if he reaches the second round.
Two leaders and two political approaches
The National Rally was once built around a single leader and, for decades, a single family. It is now increasingly emerging as a party with two powerful figures, both of whom may have presidential ambitions.
Their political approaches are not identical. Bardella has adopted a more business-friendly economic position and is often seen as closer to Trump-style politics. Le Pen has traditionally emphasised national sovereignty, economic protection and a stronger welfare state.
Those differences could become more visible as the party chooses its candidate. Bardella currently has stronger polling momentum, while Le Pen retains greater experience, name recognition and control over much of the party’s political machinery.
The court ruling has revived the Marine Le Pen presidential bid, but it has not resolved the National Rally’s strategic dilemma. The central question is now whether Le Pen and Bardella can agree on which of them should lead the party into the 2027 election.
