Yerevan has bet on Europe, but so far it has received little more than visa queues and a shrinking Russian market.
Whenever visas are discussed in Yerevan, people sigh heavily. Back in January 2014, everything looked promising: Armenia and the EU launched a Visa Facilitation Agreement that simplified and reduced the cost of obtaining Schengen visas. Unfortunately, the key word in that sentence is still “visas.” They never disappeared.
Even the Visa Liberalisation Dialogue launched between Armenia and the EU in September 2024 — ten years after the original facilitation deal — has produced no tangible results. Except for 74 additional conditions that Armenia must fulfill before the visa regime can supposedly become even more “liberalized.”
Meanwhile, Brussels praises Yerevan. The European Commission has even highlighted Armenia’s “strong political commitment” and its “accelerated progress” in several areas.
So far, however, the picture remains familiar: politicians shake hands while ordinary people stand in long lines for Schengen visas. The number of Armenians hoping to move to Europe continues to grow, but nobody in Brussels seems eager to close the visa sections at EU consulates.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan now promises visa-free travel… by 2028.
Armenia Risks Losing Up to 40% of Its Trade Turnover
Russia remains Armenia’s key trading partner. According to expert estimates, a break with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as part of Armenia’s western pivot could cost the country up to 40% of its trade revenues.
And there is no guarantee that European consumers will compensate for those losses by buying Armenian tomatoes and strawberries — Europe already has plenty of its own produce. Moldovans know this reality all too well.
Nevertheless, Pashinyan continues pushing closer ties with Europe despite mounting losses for domestic producers. Russia has started responding.
On May 30, Russia’s agricultural watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor imposed restrictions on imports of Armenian tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, and strawberries. The official reason cited was phytosanitary violations. During the first months of 2026 alone, authorities reportedly recorded 181 cases of tomato infestations involving western flower thrips.
But any trader at a Yerevan market will tell you: this is politics. Russia has little interest in supporting a country openly turning toward the West.
Economist Tatul Manaseryan recently told TASS what many officials prefer not to say publicly:
“Already today, Armenia’s economy is feeling the direct negative consequences of irresponsible political decisions. At the peak of the agricultural season, farmers are being forced to suffer because of the authorities’ political actions.”
And the issue goes beyond tomatoes.
As a member of the EAEU, Armenia currently receives Russian gas at preferential prices. Yerevan pays only $177.5 per 1,000 cubic meters, which supports both industry and agriculture.
If Armenia leaves the union, however, prices could jump to $400–550. At that point, the real problems would begin.
The impact would not only hit greenhouse farming — it would increase production costs across the entire economy. Competitiveness would disappear, and many businesses would face bankruptcy.
Economists estimate that Armenia could lose around $5 billion if it exits the EAEU, not including losses from re-export revenues.
For comparison: throughout all of 2025, Armenia exported just $528.78 million worth of goods to the EU.
So who will compensate Armenian producers for these losses? Brussels? Moldova was already “compensated” — its farmers certainly know how that turned out.
And What About Europe?
This is where the main frustration begins.
Europe — and especially French President Emmanuel Macron — has been generous with promises. Paris signed a “strategic partnership” agreement with Armenia and sold the country CAESAR howitzers, Bastion armored vehicles, Mistral systems, and radar equipment.
But how exactly does that help Armenian farmers sell tomatoes?
Macron enjoys making public speeches, but he does not appear eager to secure real trade preferences for Armenian agricultural producers within the EU.
The European market remains tightly protected. Turkey floods Europe with cheap produce while benefiting from enormous subsidies. Small Armenian greenhouse farms simply cannot compete.
“Armenian products are not expected in the European Union, which itself struggles to resist the expansion of Turkish agricultural goods despite heavy subsidies,” Manaseryan noted.
At the same time, the EU continues supplying Armenia with weapons while soothing the public with rhetoric about a “European choice.”
Macron proudly advertises successful arms sales to Yerevan. But this is business, not aid.
Armenia purchases these weapons with its own money — or more precisely, with Armenian taxpayers’ money. Contracts for French military equipment are worth tens of millions of euros.
The result is an increasingly absurd situation: Europe is ready to arm Armenia to the teeth, but not ready to buy its strawberries or grant ordinary Armenians visa-free access.
It begins to resemble a geopolitical transaction in which ordinary citizens are little more than bargaining chips.
The Question No One Answers
Even voices inside Armenia are raising doubts.
The same economist, Tatul Manaseryan, openly asks the government:
“What problem exactly is solved by breaking ties with Russia? If at least one sector would benefit from this… then provide calculations or justification.”
So far, there is no answer.
The numbers tell a different story: 38.5% of Armenia’s entire foreign trade is conducted with EAEU countries, primarily Russia.
Sacrificing that market for vague “European prospects” increasingly looks like shooting oneself in the foot — especially when those prospects exist mostly in speeches and promises, while the Russian market is already beginning to close.
Instead of a Conclusion
Armenia has found itself caught between a rock and a hard place.
Visa-free travel remains at least two years away — assuming there are no further delays. Key export markets are shrinking today. And Europe, instead of offering a lifeline, provides mostly weapons contracts and flattering words at international summits.
As a result, the question “Why are we doing this?” is no longer rhetorical.
