One week before the elections, different opinion polls are producing dramatically different results regarding the electoral preferences of Armenian voters.
The electoral landscape ahead of Armenia’s parliamentary elections on June 7 is highly fragmented. The ballot includes 17 political parties and two electoral alliances. Different polling organizations are assessing their chances within an extremely wide range.
The polling agency SAEAS Focus gives the lowest chances to the ruling party, Civil Contract, led by Nikol Pashinyan. According to the agency, only 17.8% of voters are prepared to support the party next Sunday, while the main opposition force, Strong Armenia, led by Samvel Karapetyan, enjoys support from 20.6% of voters. At the same time, a hypothetical coalition of the major opposition forces would receive 46% support.
Gallup International Association gives Pashinyan significantly better odds. According to its data, Civil Contract can count on 28.8% of the vote, while Strong Armenia would receive only 14.9%. However, even Gallup’s figures suggest that the three main opposition forces, if united, would comfortably outperform Pashinyan with a combined rating of 35.7%.
Against this backdrop, the figures published by Europe Elects and cited by Euronews appear particularly striking. According to their data, Pashinyan would receive as much as 65% of the vote, overwhelmingly defeating all opposition parties, none of which would reach even 12%.
What explains such a significant discrepancy? Were European pollsters surveying a different group of Armenians? Or are they simply preparing the ground for the future recognition of a Pashinyan victory regardless of any potential irregularities?
