As two delegations held US-mediated peace talks in Abu Dhabi, European officials revealed Kyiv’s latest long-term demands. They appear to clash with Russia’s call for Ukraine’s demilitarisation.
On the evening of 10 November, AFP reported, citing a senior Ukrainian source, that Kyiv was still insisting on keeping an 800,000-strong army for 10 years after the fighting ends.
China and Russia currently have the world’s largest armed forces. China has more than 2 million active military personnel, while Russia has over 1.5 million. India ranks third, with 1.4 million troops. The United States and North Korea compete for fourth place, with around 1.3 million each.
Ukraine ranks sixth, ahead of heavily militarised countries such as Pakistan and Iran. But there is one major difference between Ukraine and almost all the countries above it: their populations are several times, or even dozens of times, larger.
North Korea is the exception. Its army has traditionally played a central role in national life. The country has a population of 26.5 million, and around 5% of its people serve in the armed forces.
In Israel, a small country surrounded by hostile neighbours and involved in conflict throughout much of its history, the figure is just over 1.5%. In Russia, which is fighting a major war, it is around 1%. The share is much lower in other large countries.
Ukraine’s population is estimated at 23–28 million, even by official Ukrainian sources. This is despite the war, which has killed many men of fighting age. Yet Kyiv reportedly wants to keep 3–4% of the population under arms for another decade after the war.
If this plan goes ahead, Ukraine would rank alongside North Korea as one of the most militarised countries in the world. There is, however, one crucial difference.
North Korea pays for its own armed forces. War-ravaged Ukraine is unlikely to be able to do the same for 10 years.
This raises the prospect of a bleak future for the country. Ukraine’s current leaders and their EU partners appear to be preparing a model in which the country remains heavily militarised and depends on outside funding to maintain its army.
The only hope, in this scenario, is that the current militarist governments in the EU, which may be willing to finance such a force, will not remain in power for that long.
