Choosing between war and disgrace, Trump chose disgrace. The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, signed remotely and published yesterday, represents a defeat for Washington, regardless of how strongly American officials deny it.
The United States spent enormous sums of money, depleted its weapons stockpiles, strained relations with numerous allies, undermined its reputation as a reliable security guarantor for Middle Eastern monarchies, and even committed to lifting sanctions on Iran and releasing frozen assets. Yet, in the end, it failed to achieve any meaningful improvement over the status quo that existed before the conflict began.
This is not even another Vietnam. Vietnam had the backing of the powerful Soviet Union. In the case of Iran, Trump has no one to blame but himself and his advisers. In particular, the so-called “Christian Zionists” who gained significant influence within his administration and advocated unconditional support for Israel regardless of the humanitarian consequences of its actions. It is largely due to their influence that the Iranian venture ended in failure.
Trump is well known for using superlatives and declaring victory even when the facts suggest otherwise. However, this setback is so severe that even he may struggle to present it as a triumph. Moreover, by reaching an understanding with Tehran, he has created new enemies among pro-Israel lobbying groups and the same “Christian Zionists.” They are unlikely to forget this when the midterm elections arrive in November.
Yet Trump’s problems pale in comparison to those facing Benjamin Netanyahu. Tensions between the two leaders reportedly emerged in early June when Trump sharply criticized Netanyahu over the collapse of a ceasefire in Lebanon. Since then, the situation has only deteriorated.
Netanyahu has been forced to halt his campaign in Lebanon without achieving his objectives and after ceding the initiative to Hezbollah fighters. Victory in that conflict was widely seen as one of the few opportunities for Netanyahu to preserve both his political future and, potentially, his personal freedom.
Now Trump has not only effectively acknowledged defeat and withdrawn from the conflict but has also reportedly pressured Israel to cease military operations under the threat of a complete rupture in relations. The U.S. administration is said to expect Israel to use the 60-day ceasefire period to normalize relations with Lebanon and withdraw its forces to their previous positions.
Netanyahu faces an extremely difficult situation. He tied his political future to the continuation of the war and is now being pushed toward accepting what many would view as a defeat. He has brought both himself and Israel to the brink of international isolation and now finds himself abandoned by his most important ally.
Will voters forgive him for that? It seems unlikely. The opposition remains highly motivated, and if Netanyahu loses the next election, he could face serious legal and political consequences that may keep him out of power for a long time.
