Moldova braces for inflation surge amid Gulf conflict
Economy Minister Eugeniu Osmokescu said the first serious economic consequences of the war in the Persian Gulf are expected to hit Moldova in June 2026, with the government preparing scenarios that include double-digit inflation.
The minister did not provide precise figures, saying the forecasts are still being finalized.
According to Osmokescu, the government’s calculations are currently based on existing energy prices, though he acknowledged that predicting the oil market even a few months ahead remains nearly impossible.
The baseline scenario under discussion within the government reportedly assumes inflation above 10%.
Double-digit inflation expected to affect daily goods
Osmokescu said the effects of the conflict would begin to appear at the transition between the first and second halves of 2026.
“From a banking and economic perspective, we will see the impact beginning already in May and June, meaning at the end of the first half of 2026, at the junction between the two halves of the year,” the minister said.
He stressed that the issue goes beyond fuel prices.
“At the moment, we are talking about price increases of around 10%, which are inevitable. I’m not speaking only about diesel or gasoline, I’m talking about everyday goods and possibly services. Of course, this is unavoidable,” Osmokescu stated.
The minister added that some forecasts also point to “slight economic stagnation” across the European Union, which could further affect Moldova’s fragile economy.
Government prepares scenarios as uncertainty grows
According to the minister, authorities are drafting several economic scenarios depending on how long the conflict in the Persian Gulf lasts and how severely it impacts regional energy markets.
Today’s energy prices may look completely different tomorrow, Osmokescu noted, making long-term projections highly unstable.
For now, the government has not published its official forecasts.
At the same time, the minister admitted that predicting oil market dynamics even by August 2026 is currently impossible, underscoring the level of uncertainty facing both Moldova and European economies more broadly.
Inflation fears add pressure on households
The prospect of double-digit inflation is likely to increase pressure on Moldovan households already struggling with high utility costs and slowing economic growth.
While the government insists it is monitoring the situation closely, officials have so far stopped short of outlining any concrete measures aimed at cushioning consumers from another wave of price increases.
