The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down its medium-term outlook for Moldova’s economy in its April World Economic Outlook report pointing to persistent structural challenges and cuts Moldova growth forecast.
Moldova economic forecast downgraded
According to the updated projections, Moldova’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been reduced by 0.4 percentage points to 1.9%. Expectations for 2027 have also been lowered by 0.3 points, to 3.2%.
At the same time, the IMF offered a more positive outlook on inflation. Analysts expect inflation to fall to 6.4% in 2026 and further to 5.5% by 2027.
Structural issues weigh on growth
In its report, the IMF cited long-standing structural factors behind the weaker outlook. These include high levels of poverty, continued population outflow, and limited competitiveness on international markets.
Such constraints, the fund noted, continue to weigh on Moldova’s economic performance and limit its growth potential.
Risks remain amid external uncertainty
The IMF also warned that the outlook could deteriorate further due to external risks. These include ongoing geopolitical tensions and the possibility of renewed volatility in global energy markets.
As a small and open economy, Moldova remains particularly vulnerable to such external shocks, which could further complicate its economic trajectory in the coming years.
