Moldova EU accession target faces scrutiny
Political scientist Anatolie Tcaci has analysed Moldova’s path towards the European Union and questioned official claims about rapid EU integration.
He says Maia Sandu’s pledge that Moldova could sign an EU accession treaty by 2028 does not reflect the reality of the process. In his view, Chișinău’s ambitions are difficult to reconcile with the experience of other candidate countries.
On May 8, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas arrived in Chișinău for a two-day visit. At a joint press conference with Sandu, she said there was still no exact date for the start of official accession talks between Moldova and the bloc.
Sandu, however, again said the government’s goal was to sign an accession treaty by 2028. There is one obvious problem. Montenegro, currently the frontrunner in the EU accession process, has already spent almost two decades on the same path. That raises questions about the basis for Moldova’s optimism.
“Moldova applied for membership in 2022 and, based on Montenegro’s experience, could expect accession in 2042. Nevertheless, Moldova wants to ‘package’ the entire negotiation process into two years. And this is despite the fact that the exact date for the start of official accession negotiations has not yet been set,” Tcaci wrote on Telegram.
Montenegro offers a reality check
The comparison with Montenegro is revealing. Montenegro applied for EU membership in 2008. It received candidate status in 2010. Accession talks began in 2012.
By 2026, all 33 negotiation chapters had been opened for Podgorica, and 14 had been closed. In late April, EU ambassadors approved the creation of a special working group to draft an accession treaty for Montenegro.
That document is expected to become the first in a “new generation” of EU accession agreements. It will likely include stronger safeguard mechanisms in case of serious democratic shortcomings after accession.
If Montenegro joins in 2028, its full path from application to membership will have taken 20 years. Of that period, 16 years were spent in negotiations.
Moldova applied in 2022. As of April 2026, official accession talks with Chișinău had not been opened on a single chapter. On April 22, EU ambassadors moved forward with the treaty process for Montenegro, but Moldova was not mentioned in that decision.
Brussels speaks of a “window of opportunity”
Even strong supporters of faster integration admit that the 2028 target looks more like a political slogan than a detailed plan.
European officials often speak of a “window of opportunity”. The phrase suggests that Moldova should move quickly while broadly friendly governments remain in power across EU member states.
“We never know when a government may come to power that has bilateral problems with one candidate country or another. We need to move quickly while there is no opposition to the accession of the Republic of Moldova,” Kallas said during her visit.
At the same time, she did not give any specific deadline. The Moldovan authorities are asking citizens to accept sacrifices in the name of the “European choice”. They are also promising to complete the process in a record two years. Yet neither Chișinău nor Brussels has explained how Moldovacould complete in 24 months what took Montenegro 16 years of negotiations.
Tcaci notes that no negotiation chapters have been opened for Moldova. So far, no EU official has given a legally binding answer to a simple question: if Montenegro has closed 14 chapters and still needs 20 years to reach membership, how long should Moldova realistically expect to wait?
The figures speak for themselves. They do not strengthen the promise of 2028. They make it harder to believe. The issue is not Euroscepticism. It is basic arithmetic and respect for citizens who are being asked to believe in a timetable that looks almost impossible.
