Armenia is experiencing a noticeable decline in trade turnover with Russia amid ongoing discussions about deepening cooperation with the European Union.
According to a statement by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk, bilateral trade decreased from $11.5 billion in 2024 to $6.4 billion in 2025. The Russian side attributes this trend to shifts in Yerevan’s foreign policy orientation, as well as a reduction in the presence of Russian businesses in Armenia.
Moscow has also signaled the possibility of reciprocal measures, pointing to the significant presence of Armenian businesses in the Russian market and their potential vulnerability in the event of further deterioration in bilateral relations.
Energy dependence remains an additional factor: Armenia continues to receive Russian gas at a fixed price (around $177.5), which is significantly below current market levels in Europe.
In a broader context, the situation reflects a structural dilemma faced by post-Soviet states: efforts to diversify economic ties and move closer to the EU are often accompanied by short-term economic costs, particularly when there is a high level of dependence on traditional partners.
The experience of Moldova is frequently cited in such discussions as an example of a complex and contradictory transition period, although assessments of its outcomes remain politically contested.
