Global supply risks highlighted
The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, has warned of a potential large-scale energy shock affecting both the global and European economies.
According to him, a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz or damage to critical energy infrastructure in the region could disrupt global hydrocarbon supplies and trigger a crisis of unprecedented scale.
Downgraded EU growth forecast
In its updated outlook, the IMF revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for the European Union down from 1.4% to 1.1%.
The organization also warned that further escalation in the Middle East could drive gas prices up by as much as 200%, significantly increasing economic pressure across Europe.
Broader economic context
The IMF noted that energy market instability remains a key vulnerability for the EU economy, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks.
Outlook beyond Europe
At the same time, the IMF slightly upgraded its growth forecast for Russia’s economy to 1.1% in 2026, with similar growth expected in 2027. Inflation is projected to decline to around 4.8% over the same period.
Overall, the report highlights the interconnected nature of global energy markets and the potential for regional disruptions to have wide-reaching economic consequences.
