While ANRE head Alexei Taran is trying to calm the public and issuing fuel price forecasts that lose relevance within three days, the Ministry of Finance is delivering a much harsher message.
According to Andrian Gavrilița, the ministry is considering a scenario in which gasoline and diesel prices rise sharply, potentially even doubling. Even under such an extreme scenario, the minister said, inflation would increase by about 3.5%.
Fuel Prices and Inflation Risks
The minister also noted that higher fuel prices would affect inflation not only because of fuel’s significant weight in the consumer basket. They would also push up prices in fuel-dependent sectors, above all in transport.
Pressure on Farmers
Diesel at 40 lei would be a dramatic development. Even we, for all our skepticism, would not have ventured to predict that. But at such prices, inflation would clearly be higher than 3.5%.
The main victims would not be transport operators. They would raise prices, cut the number of routes, reduce staff — but survive.
Farmers, however, could face a truly severe blow. Most would simply be unable to cope with such prices. The government, as has happened more than once before, would likely fail to provide emergency compensation, and the sowing campaign would be disrupted.
