The US President made an unexpected statement on his own social network, Truth Social, about the prospects for settling the Middle East conflict.
Trump Claims Progress
The statement triggered an immediate reaction on the oil market. Within minutes, Brent crude prices fell by about 15%, briefly dropping below $92 per barrel.
Tehran Rejects the Claim
Iran’s response came almost immediately. First, a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry rejected the claim that talks were taking place, and then Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian personally denied it as well.
After that, Trump’s opponents in the United States and beyond were left only to compete in wit, saying, for example, that Trump is holding talks with people whom Biden merely shook hands with.
It appears that Trump is once again acting in his usual style. He is straining to present a brave face in a very poor situation and is using triumphant rhetoric to prepare an exit from a war that has turned out to be openly unsuccessful for him.
Political Costs of the Conflict
Despite the rhetoric, the results of the three-week conflict are disappointing for him. During that time, the weakness of transatlantic solidarity was exposed, a serious blow was dealt to the MAGA movement, to the unity of the Republican Party, and to its electoral prospects.
Significant stocks of expensive high-precision weapons were also spent, and at current production levels it will take years to rebuild them. During the war, the United States was even forced to ease its sanctions regime against Iran.
The scale of the political capital Trump has burned through remains to be assessed. As for Iran, despite heavy losses, it not only endured but also managed to save face. At least for now, that is how the situation appears.
